How forecasting works

Your forecast is closed revenue plus the open deals due this period, read two ways: what your calls say (Signals), and what your own history says (Expected revenue). No AI score, no learned weights — a transparent sum you can audit, because a forecast you can't audit is a forecast you can't defend.

What a deal's win probability is

One thing: its stage's win rate. A stage's rate is yours once ten of your deals have passed through it in the last twelve months — the share that went on to win. Until then it is estimated: your overall win rate shaped onto a standard funnel, or the standard rates alone while you have almost no closes. The Win rates line under the Forecast vs reality chart says how many stages are yours. A deal's weighted value is its amount times that probability.

What is and isn't counted

Deals with no close date, or one already past, are not in the period's number — the Top Deals header says how many are due in the period. Deals in another currency are counted but never summed. At Risk counts deals that are stalled (longer in a stage than your deals usually take), slipped (close date moved later) or going dark (no call in 14 days); the flag shows you the risk, it never changes the number.

Why it starts at N/A

Win rates computed from a handful of deals are noise, and a forecast built on noise is worse than no forecast. So projections show N/A until 15 closed deals give the math honest rates — your pipeline stays visible the whole time, with a progress bar counting you toward the unlock. From there every closed deal recalibrates the rates automatically. Nothing to maintain.

Bring your history

Imported CRM deals count toward the 15 and set your overall win rate from day one. Stage rates still become yours stage by stage, as deals close here with their history recorded. The account owner connects a CRM under Setup.

That's what feeds the numbers. Reading the page itself — next.